The 2013 Bangkok governor race: likes did not translate into votes

The 2013 Bangkok governor election was the first in which every major candidate ran social media accounts — and the candidate with the most Facebook likes finished third. So what did Bangkok voters actually use to decide?

The study compiled the four major candidates' social media statistics (Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, Instagram, Google+ and their own websites) alongside interviews with campaign staff, then surveyed 400 registered Bangkok voters who had voted in the previous governor election, drawn across twelve groups of districts at 7–9% of the sample each. The questionnaire covered demographic profile, media utilisation, and voting decision.

• Television was the medium respondents most often turned to first for election information (47.3%), and also the medium that most influenced their decision (37.8%), followed by outdoor media (16.5%).
• Only 10% said new media — websites and social media — influenced how they voted.
• Traditional media rated 3.58 out of 5 in importance to the election; new media rated 2.84.
• The statement respondents agreed with most strongly (mean 3.85) was that candidates should have personal contact with voters.
• The candidate with the most Facebook likes (238,138) came third, while the winner was the one with the highest “talking about this” count (146,294).
• Voters aged 56 and over agreed less than younger groups that new media was interesting or instant — and most candidates themselves said in interviews that social media was fast and cheap but could not predict votes.

The finding that still holds is that social media metrics are not a proxy for votes: anyone anywhere can click like, and they may not be Bangkok residents or old enough to vote. The authors argue campaigns should use new media creatively to reach younger generations while keeping traditional persuasion alongside it, because that is what wins votes.